Canadiens Face Critical Negotiations with Restricted Free Agent Xhekaj

The reason is simple. Xhekaj’s game has evolved into that of a far-more complete defenseman than when he first signed as an undrafted free agent. So, it’s not a stretch to suggest these negotiations with Xhekaj will hold long-lasting ramifications for negotiations not just with Guhle (and Jordan Harris and Jayden Struble) next season, but Lane Hutson, Logan Mailloux and David Reinbacher soon thereafter.

Arber Xhekaj vs. Alex Vlasic

Bit by bit the Canadiens’ defensive corps for a large part of the next decade is taking shape. Xhekaj and Justin Barron have the honour of being the first RFAs to presumably re-sign, their entry-level deals expiring on July 1. Should the Habs decide to lock up each of them a la Chicago Blackhawks with Alex Vlasic, they’ll effectively serve as the foundation’s cement for better or worse.

Of course, all due respect to Barron, Xhekaj has shown a lot more to cement his status in the team’s long-term plans. That’s why re-signing Xhekaj must be the priority for general manager Kent Hughes, not just between the two but in terms of what must be done this offseason. Such is the 23-year-old’s projected importance to the team as a 6-foot-4, 240-pound enforcer who’s proven nearly as adept at keeping the puck out of his own zone as throwing fists in defense of teammates.

Therein lies at least part of the problem with using Vlasic’s deal as a template. He and Xhekaj may have similar frames (6-foot-6, 217 pounds), with the former perhaps having more defensive awareness, Xhekaj more offensive upside having gotten regular shifts on the Canadiens’ power play. Xhekaj also engages in more fights, with one in particular prematurely ending his 2022-23 season due to an injury to his right shoulder (which led to surgery).

Remember Alexei Emelin?

Sadly, Xhekaj suffered a separate season-ending shoulder injury in 2024 (from ‘Canadiens’ Arber Xhekaj to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery,’ Montreal Gazette, April 9, 2024). While the fact this time the injury was to his left shoulder is comforting in a sense, the need for shoulder surgery two years in a row is concerning and should be taken into consideration during negotiations. It’s enough to spark memories of an extension to which the Canadiens signed a certain other hard-hitting defenseman a decade ago: Alexei Emelin.

Emelin is a cautionary tale in that then-GM Marc Bergevin re-signed him while he was still on the shelf with a knee injury. It became one of the contracts Canadiens fans lamented the most, many hoping beyond hope the Vegas Golden Knights would select Emelin at the 2017 NHL expansion draft to lose his inflated $4.1 million cap hit. Then the Knights miraculously did, naturally prompting Bergevin to reportedly try to reacquire him, because of course he did, with Emelin eventually going on to play for the Nashville Predators instead.

Chalk it all up as one of Bergevin’s many mistakes at the helm of the team. However, none of that is the worst part of the Emelin saga: Bergevin re-signed Emelin when he did, in October 2013, when his contract was only coming due the following summer. Think about that for a second. Bergevin valued Emelin soooo much that he decided to forego the opportunity to assess his game upon his return from a knee injury that he went and more than doubled his cap hit (from his previous $2 million). On top of all that, Bergevin gave Emelin a no-trade clause to boot.

The Time to Cross a Bridge with Xhekaj

Objectively speaking, there is little comparison between the two players. The only real advantage Emelin has over Xhekaj is maybe regarding their respective nicknames. “Emelinator” trumps “The Sheriff” (his nickname in the media and with fans) or “Jacko” (his nickname according to head coach Martin St. Louis) any day of the week. And there’s no disputing the Canadiens lack the luxury of seeing how Xhekaj looks in game action before his current contract expires. So, all they can do is proceed with caution, with a bridge contract being the wisest course of action.

Another difference is, at the time of the contract in question, Emelin was a 27-year-old ending his sophomore contract. He was also coming off a season in which he and Andrei Markov constituted the team’s most used defensive pairing as the Canadiens captured the Northeast Division in 2012-13. So, that all obviously factored into the decision to invest as heavily as Bergevin did in the guy.

In contrast, Xhekaj played his most minutes with David Savard, who, while having complemented Mike Matheson at times, is not the top defenseman Markov was. Xhekaj played the second-lowest minutes per game among Canadiens defensemen (15:56, just above Gustav Lindstrom), further indicating how much more he has to prove in the eyes of management.

Habs Won’t Break Bank with Xhekaj

So, taking all factors into account, the Canadiens are simply unlikely to lock Xhekaj up with a cap hit (or term) even close to Emelin’s or Vlasic’s. A much more reasonable, but admittedly imperfect comparable is Winnipeg Jets defenseman Dylan Samberg’s second contract, which he signed in 2023, paying him $2.8 million over two years ($1.4 million cap hit).

A 2017 second-round pick (No. 43), Samberg lacks a high-end draft pedigree, but he impressively established himself as a legit prospect to watch in the Jets system, eventually becoming an NHL mainstay over the last two seasons. He admittedly doesn’t possess the same massive frame as Xhekaj (although he is the same 6-foot-4, whatever that’s worth), hinting at how they play different games. However, Samberg does project as a well-rounded defenseman similar to what the Canadiens see in Xhekaj. Even though Samberg is two years older, he inked his deal last summer. So, there will be just a single year’s difference in their signing ages. 

Again, it’s not a perfect comparison, but a sign Xhekaj, despite having endeared himself to Canadiens fans and the organization alike, won’t break the bank while staying a key component of the team’s defense for the future. There is an undeniable risk Xhekaj raises his game to another level over the course of the hypothetical bridge contract (albeit not to the degree P.K. Subban did when he won the James Norris Memorial Trophy in Year 1 of his second contract after having signed a bridge). However, with Xhekaj injured like he is, the Canadiens simply have to take the risk his third contract ends up being incredibly expensive, but well-earned. 

There are worse problems to have. With the contracts of all their young defensemen coming due in the near future, Hughes and company have no choice but to err on the side of caution. The precedent they’d be setting in the process, of not breaking the bank with Xhekaj based solely on mere flashes of impressive gameplay (relatively speaking), is a bonus that should pay its own dividends during the many series of negotiations to come.